Zempel Strategic
Applied Economics and Financial Market Analysis

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Zempel Strategic

March 2017 Update: Bullish (Unchanged)

The Zempel Strategic Stock Market Model’s signal remained “bullish” in February 2017. Two model components (valuation and momentum) stayed bullish last month, and one (interest-rate changes) remained bearish. According to our rules, the model portfolio remains all invested in common stocks (S&P 500 Index).

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Clare Zempel
January 2017 Update: Bullish (Unchanged)

The Zempel Strategic Stock Market Model’s signal remained “bullish” in December 2016. Two model components (valuation and momentum) remained bullish last month, and one (interest-rate changes) remained bearish. According to our rules, the model portfolio remains all invested in common stocks (S&P 500 Index)

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Clare Zempel
Zempel Strategic Stock Market Newsletter: January 2017

If the economy follows the same path that it did in 2004-09, the next recession will not start until December 2019. The stock market has never peaked and fallen in bear-market fashion until after interest rates rose sharply (“Alert Zone”) or the yield spread became inverted (“Caution Zone”), and the Zempel Strategic Stock Model turned bearish. Neither a recession nor a bear market threatens now.

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Clare Zempel